India is not likely to be on the front line if China were to attack Taiwan, but would play a supportive or humanitarian aid role instead

• By Sudhi Ranjan Sen Bloomberg

India is studying possible responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan following discreet inquiries from the US on how the South Asian nation could contribute in the event of a war, according to senior Indian government officials.

About six weeks ago, Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan — India’s top military commander — commissioned a study to examine the wider impact of any war over Taiwan that also involves the US and its allies, and what action India could take in response, according to two senior Indian officials, who asked to remain anonymous. The order came after the US raised the issue in several different forums, they said.

The study will assess various war scenarios and provide options for India in case a conflict breaks out, they said. Some Indian military commanders believe that strong statements might suffice as a response in case the war is short, but ultimately that would not be enough if the conflict drags on like Russia’s war in Ukraine, the officials said.

India’s preparation for a potential war over Taiwan shows how its policy of “multi-alignment” would be tested in the event of a drastic deterioration of US-China ties. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has forged its own path on international relations, effectively hedging its bets by developing close ties to the US while refusing to join international sanctions on Russia.

Yet tensions with China have also flared along their disputed Himalayan border, contributing to a deterioration in relations that might have prompted Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) to skip the G20 summit this weekend in New Delhi. India has strengthened defense ties with the US in recent years, joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) along with Japan and Australia — a band of democracies intent on countering China’s growing influence.

One option the Indian military will study involves serving as a logistics hub to provide repair and maintenance facilities for allied warships and aircraft, as well as food, fuel and medical equipment for armies resisting China, the officials said. A more extreme scenario, they added, would assess the potential for India to become directly involved along their northern border, opening a new theater of war for China.

While no deadline has been set to complete the study, the Indian military is under orders to finish it as soon as possible, one of the officials said. The options prepared would be available for Modi and other political leaders to make a final call on any action should the need arise, the official said.

India’s Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry did not respond to emailed questions. The US State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“By hyping up the Taiwan question, creating tensions and provoking confrontation, the US attempts to turn the Taiwan question into an international issue,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Mao Ning (毛寧) told reporters in Beijing on Friday. “This is highly dangerous.”

India and China have mobilized thousands of troops, artillery guns, tanks and missiles closer to the unmarked border running some 3,500 kilometers, roughly the length of the US-Mexico border. Diplomatic talks have yielded little, with China last month releasing a new map claiming India-controlled territory — a claim that Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar described as “absurd.”

India has publicly resisted efforts to make the Quad appear like a military alliance, and remains reliant on Russia — China’s most important diplomatic partner — for weapons that would be used in any regional war. Even so, it has quietly sought better relations with Taiwan: Three former Indian military chiefs who stepped down in the past year all visited Taiwan last month.

Five years ago, India and the US signed a Logistics-Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a foundational pact to allow refueling and replenishing of warships and aircraft, as well as access to bases when required.

Even though India is examining military options, it remains unlikely that it would be directly involved in a war over Taiwan, according to Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, who earlier worked with the US’ National Security Council, CIA and State Department. It is possible India might provide access to places like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands near Southeast Asia, she added.

“If there were to be some kind of conflict or crises in the Taiwan Strait, I think India’s position would be to stand back and not become militarily involved,” she said. “Even though they might support Taiwan with statements and humanitarian assistance, I think they would be very wary about providing any kind of military assistance to the US.”

With assistance from Iain Marlow and Adrian Leung.